Demography of Scotland

Scotland has a population of 5,222,100 (2010 estimate). Covering an area of 78,782 square kilometres (30,418 sq mi), Scotland has a population density of 65.6 /km2 (170 /sq mi). Around 70% of the country's population live in the Central Lowlands — a broad, fertile valley stretching in a northeast-southwest orientation between the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow, and including major settlements such as Paisley, Stirling, Falkirk, Perth and Dundee. Other concentrations of population include the northeast coast of Scotland, principally the regions around the cities of Aberdeen and Inverness. The Highlands of Scotland have the lowest population density at 8 /km2 (21 /sq mi). The City of Glasgow has the highest population density at 3,292 /km2 (8,530 /sq mi).

Estimating the population of Scotland, as well as recording births, deaths and marriages in Scotland is overseen by the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), headed by the Registrar-General for Scotland. Under the terms of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965, the Registrar-General must present an annual report of demographic trends to Scottish Ministers (previously the Secretary of State for Scotland prior to devolution). In conjunction with the rest of the United Kingdom a decadal census of population is carried out — the last one being 2011, the next taking place in 2021.

Contents

Population data

Total residents:

Figures from the decennial Census are as follows:

According to the annual estimates of the GROS, in 2006, Scotland had a total resident population of 5,116,900 - an increase of 22,100 on the previous year and an increase of nearly 55,000 since mid-2002. The total population was split between 2,469,407 males and 2,647,693 females.

Vital statistics since 1900 [1]

Average population (x 1000) Live births Deaths Natural change Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000)
1900 4 437 131 401 82 296 49 105 29.6 18.5 11.1
1901 4 479 132 192 80 107 52 085 29.5 17.9 11.6
1902 4 507 132 267 77 941 54 326 29.4 17.3 12.0
1903 4 536 133 525 76 002 57 523 29.4 16.8 12.7
1904 4 564 132 603 77 981 54 622 29.1 17.1 12.0
1905 4 593 131 410 74 536 56 874 28.6 16.2 12.4
1906 4 621 132 005 75 635 56 370 28.6 16.4 12.2
1907 4 650 128 840 77 296 51 544 27.7 16.6 11.1
1908 4 680 131 362 77 838 53 524 28.1 16.6 11.4
1909 4 709 128 669 74 632 54 037 27.3 15.8 11.5
1910 4 739 124 059 72 268 51 791 26.2 15.2 11.0
1911 4 751 121 850 71 732 50 118 25.7 15.1 10.6
1912 4 741 122 790 72 340 50 450 25.9 15.3 10.6
1913 4 728 120 516 73 069 47 447 25.5 15.5 10.0
1914 4 747 123 934 73 557 50 377 26.1 15.5 10.6
1915 4 771 114 181 81 631 32 550 23.9 17.1 6.8
1916 4 795 109 942 70 640 39 302 22.9 14.7 8.2
1917 4 810 97 441 69 483 27 958 20.2 14.4 5.8
1918 4 812 98 554 78 372 20 182 20.5 16.3 4.2
1919 4 820 106 268 75 149 31 119 22.1 15.6 6.5
1920 4 864 136 546 68 179 68 367 28.1 14.0 14.1
1921 4 882 123 201 66 210 56 991 25.2 13.6 11.7
1922 4 898 115 085 72 905 42 180 23.5 14.9 8.6
1923 4 888 111 902 63 283 48 619 22.9 13.0 9.9
1924 4 862 106 900 70 357 36 543 22.0 14.5 7.5
1925 4 867 104 137 65 507 38 630 21.4 13.5 7.9
1926 4 864 102 449 63 780 38 669 21.1 13.1 7.9
1927 4 853 96 672 65 830 30 842 19.9 13.6 6.4
1928 4 848 96 822 65 271 31 551 20.0 13.5 6.5
1929 4 832 92 880 70 917 21 963 19.2 14.7 4.6
1930 4 828 94 549 64 285 30 264 19.6 13.3 6.3
1931 4 843 92 220 64 229 27 991 19.0 13.3 5.8
1932 4 883 91 000 66 045 24 955 18.6 13.5 5.1
1933 4 912 86 546 64 848 21 698 17.6 13.2 4.4
1934 4 934 88 836 63 741 25 095 18.0 12.9 5.1
1935 4 953 87 928 65 331 22 597 17.8 13.2 4.6
1936 4 966 88 928 66 749 22 179 17.9 13.4 4.5
1937 4 977 87 810 68 942 18 868 17.6 13.9 3.8
1938 4 993 88 627 62 953 25 674 17.8 12.6 5.1
1939 5 007 86 913 64 413 22 500 17.4 12.9 4.5
1940 5 065 86 392 72 775 13 617 17.1 14.9 2.2
1941 5 160 89 748 72 558 17 190 17.4 14.6 2.8
1942 5 174 90 703 64 963 25 740 17.5 13.2 4.3
1943 5 189 94 669 66 733 27 936 18.2 13.9 4.4
1944 5 210 95 920 64 603 31 317 18.4 13.5 4.9
1945 5 187 86 924 62 655 24 269 16.8 13.1 3.7
1946 5 167 104 413 64 605 39 808 20.2 13.0 7.2
1947 5 120 113 147 66 200 46 947 22.1 12.9 9.2
1948 5 150 100 344 60 979 39 365 19.5 11.8 7.6
1949 5 156 95 674 63 488 32 186 18.6 12.3 6.2
1950 5 168 92 530 63 996 28 534 17.9 12.4 5.5
1951 5 102 90 639 65 778 24 861 17.8 12.9 4.9
1952 5 101 90 422 61 510 28 912 17.7 12.1 5.7
1953 5 100 90 913 58 878 32 035 17.8 11.5 6.3
1954 5 104 92 315 61 380 30 935 18.1 12.0 6.1
1955 5 111 92 539 61 645 30 894 18.1 12.1 6.0
1956 5 120 95 313 61 792 33 521 18.6 12.1 6.5
1957 5 125 97 977 61 143 36 834 19.1 11.9 7.2
1958 5 141 99 481 62 065 37 416 19.4 12.1 7.3
1959 5 163 99 251 63 061 36 190 19.2 12.2 7.0
1960 5 178 101 292 61 764 39 528 19.6 11.9 7.6
1961 5 184 101 169 63 928 37 241 19.5 12.3 7.2
1962 5 198 104 334 63 189 41 145 20.1 12.2 7.9
1963 5 205 102 691 65 521 37 170 19.7 12.6 7.1
1964 5 209 104 355 61 039 43 316 20.0 11.7 8.3
1965 5 210 100 660 62 868 37 792 19.3 12.1 7.3
1966 5 201 96 536 63 689 32 847 18.6 12.2 6.3
1967 5 198 96 221 59 523 36 698 18.5 11.5 7.1
1968 5 200 94 786 63 311 31 475 18.2 12.2 6.1
1969 5 209 90 290 63 821 26 469 17.3 12.3 5.1
1970 5 215 87 335 63 640 23 695 16.7 12.2 4.5
1971 5 219 86 728 61 614 25 114 16.6 11.8 4.8
1972 5 223 78 550 65 017 13 533 15.0 12.4 2.6
1973 5 225 74 392 64 545 9 847 14.2 12.4 1.9
1974 5 226 70 093 64 740 5 353 13.4 12.4 1.0
1975 5 227 67 943 63 125 4 818 13.0 12.1 0.9
1976 5 227 64 895 65 253 - 358 12.4 12.5 -0.1
1977 5 226 62 342 62 294 48 11.9 11.9 0.0
1978 5 212 64 295 65 123 - 828 12.3 12.5 -0.2
1979 5 204 68 366 65 747 2 619 13.1 12.6 0.5
1980 5 194 68 892 63 299 5 593 13.3 12.2 1.1
1981 5 180 69 054 63 828 5 226 13.3 12.3 1.0
1982 5 165 66 196 65 022 1 174 12.8 12.6 0.2
1983 5 148 65 078 63 454 1 624 12.6 12.3 0.3
1984 5 139 65 106 62 345 2 761 12.7 12.1 0.5
1985 5 128 66 676 63 967 2 709 13.0 12.5 0.5
1986 5 112 65 812 63 467 2 345 12.9 12.4 0.5
1987 5 099 66 241 62 014 4 227 13.0 12.2 0.8
1988 5 077 66 212 61 957 4 255 13.0 12.2 0.8
1989 5 078 63 480 65 017 -1 537 12.5 12.8 -0.3
1990 5 081 65 973 61 527 4 446 13.0 12.1 0.9
1991 5 083 67 024 61 041 5 983 13.2 12.0 1.2
1992 5 086 65 789 60 937 4 852 12.9 12.0 1.0
1993 5 092 63 337 64 049 - 712 12.4 12.6 -0.1
1994 5 102 61 656 59 328 2 328 12.1 11.6 0.5
1995 5 104 60 051 60 500 - 449 11.8 11.9 -0.1
1996 5 092 59 296 60 654 -1 358 11.6 11.9 -0.3
1997 5 083 59 440 59 494 - 54 11.7 11.7 -0.0
1998 5 077 57 319 59 164 -1 845 11.3 11.7 -0.4
1999 5 072 55 147 60 281 -5 134 10.9 11.9 -1.0
2000 5 063 53 076 57 799 -4 723 10.5 11.4 -0.9
2001 5 064 52 527 57 380 -4 853 10.4 11.3 -1.0
2002 5 055 51 270 58 103 -6 833 10.1 11.5 -1.4
2003 5 057 52 432 58 472 -6 040 10.4 11.6 -1.2
2004 5 078 53 957 56 187 -2 230 10.6 11.1 -0.4
2005 5 095 54 386 55 747 -1 361 10.7 10.9 -0.3
2006 5 117 55 690 55 093 597 10.9 10.8 0.1
2007 5 144 57 781 55 986 1 795 11.2 10.9 0.3
2008 5 169 60 041 55 700 4 341 11.6 10.8 0.8
2009 5 194 59 046 53 856 5 190 11.4 10.4 1.0
2010 5 222 58 937 53 749 5 188 11.3 10.3 1.0

Population growth rate: 0.4% (2005 est.)

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.04 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.04 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 0.93 male(s)/female (2005 est.)

Infant mortality rate: 4.2 deaths/1,000 live births (2008 est.)

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 76.8 years
male: 74.2 years
female: 79.3 years (2005 est.)

Total fertility rate: 1.73 children born/woman (2007 est.)

Religions:

Main article: Religion in Scotland

Christianity (74.9%): primarily Church of Scotland (42.4%) and Roman Catholicism (15.9%), non-religious (27.5%), Islam (0.8%), others

Languages: English, Scots (Doric, Central and Border) and Gaelic

Ethnic Groups

Marriages: 32,154 (2004 est.)

Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 99%
male: 99%
female: 99% (2005 est)

Nationality noun

adjective

Population projections

Since the census of 2001, the Scottish Government and leading academics in Scotland have expressed concern over the falling number of births in Scotland and the ageing and decline of the population which has occurred over recent decades. Scotland's population reached its peak in the mid-1970s, and has slowly declined since that time to its current total of 5.1m. The major reason is seen to be emigration from Scotland - particularly to the rest of the United Kingdom - although recent years have seen that trend reversed with significant immigration to Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom [1]. Similarly, since 2004 there has been a large influx of arrivals from the new EU accession states such as Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia, contributing to the recent growth of the population. Since 1997 Scotland has generally experienced a natural decrease in population, with an excess of deaths over births. In 2004, for example, there were 4012 more deaths than births, although for the last five years this process has been reversed with 4342 more births than deaths in 2008.

Compounding the problem of a declining and ageing population, Scotland is experiencing falling fertility and birth rates - a feature common to much of Europe. The ageing population sees the large numbers of people born in the post war period (1950s and 1960s) approach retirement. A common fear amongst commentators is the strain this could impose on the nation's resources, with a smaller working population being insufficient to support a high number of retirees and dependents.

In 2002, according to the GROS, the number of live births in Scotland was the lowest ever recorded, at 51,270. This has however steadily risen, with 53,957 births recorded in 2004 and in 2008 the number of live births was 60,041.[2]

The Scottish Executive has responded to these demographic trends by setting up the Fresh Talent - Working in Scotland Scheme open to foreign (non-EU) graduates from Scotland's universities allowing them a 2 year residency period after graduation.[3]

Within Scotland itself there is significant regional variation in patterns of population growth, with areas such as Aberdeenshire (1.1%), Edinburgh (0.9%), Clackmannanshire (0.8%) Falkirk (1.1%), Perth and Kinross (0.6%) and West Lothian (0.6%) seeing the largest increases in population between 2004 and 2005. Conversely Aberdeen City (-0.5%), West Dunbartonshire (-0.6%) and East Dunbartonshire (-0.6%) have seen the largest falls in population. The Highlands have also seen a significant rise in population over recent years, compared with the last 200 years, in which the area lost large volumes of people, due to persistently high rates of (forced) emigration particularly to places such as Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

In December 2005, the GROS published a series of population projections which showed that Scotland's population was projected to rise between then and the year 2038, with both the numbers of births and deaths expected to drop. Immigration was projected to remain steady, positive and constant.[4]

In January 2008, the GROS figures predicted that Scotland's population would rise to 5.54 million by 2033. Edinburgh's population could rise by 18%, while most other large Scottish cities would suffer a decline.[2]

Council Area Population Estimates

Further information: Subdivisions of Scotland
Area Population Estimates in Scotland (2005)
Local Council Area Population (2001) Population Estimates (2005)  % change 2004 – 2005
Aberdeen City 212,125 202,370 −0.5
Aberdeenshire 226,871 235,440 +1.1
Angus 108,400 109,170 +0.6
Argyll and Bute 112,097 90,870 −0.4
Clackmannanshire 48,077 48,630 +0.8
Dumfries and Galloway 147,765 148,340 +0.3
Dundee City 142,170 145,663 +0.2
East Ayrshire 120,235 119,400 −0.3
East Dunbartonshire 108,243 105,960 −0.6
East Lothian 90,088 91,800 +0.2
East Renfrewshire 89,311 89,600 0.0
City of Edinburgh 448,624 457,830 +0.9
Eilean Siar 26,502 26,370 +0.4
Falkirk 145,191 149,150 +1.1
Fife 349,429 356,470 +0.6
Glasgow City 577,869 578,790 +0.2
Highland 208,914 213,590 +1.1
Inverclyde 84,203 82,130 −0.4
Midlothian 80,941 79,190 −0.5
Moray 86,940 88,120 +0.5
North Ayrshire 135,817 135,830 −0.1
North Lanarkshire 321,067 323,420 +0.2
Orkney Islands 19,245 19,590 +0.5
Perth and Kinross 134,949 138,400 +0.6
Renfrewshire 172,867 170,000 −0.4
Scottish Borders 106,764 109,730 +0.4
Shetland Islands 21,988 22,000 +0.3
South Ayrshire 112,097 111,780 −0.1
South Lanarkshire 302,216 306,280 +0.3
Stirling 86,212 86,930 +0.6
West Dunbartonshire 93,378 91,400 −0.6
West Lothian 158,714 163,780 +0.6

Higher education

95% of Scottish higher education students study in universities in Scotland.

See also

References

  1. ^ General Register Office for Scotland
  2. ^ Ross, shán (2008-01-23). "Scotland's growing pains as population rise creates great divide". The Scotsman. http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Scotland39s-growing-pains-as-population.3699650.jp. Retrieved 2008-01-23. 

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